秦时明月之君临天下
美联储“放水”？新元逆袭美元创纪录_我的网站
一 | NEW YORK -- Americans showed their steadfast resilience and kept spending online, at restaurants and other outlets in September even as they grappled with higher prices, rising interest rates and a host of other headwinds piling up.Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, more than twice what economists had expected, and close to a revised 0.8% bump in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Retail sales in August were inflated after gasoline prices spiked, however. That was not the case in September when gas prices rose more slowly.A closely watched category of retail sales that excludes auto dealers, gas stations and building materials and feeds into the gross domestic product jumped 0.6% last month compared to the prior month.Tuesday's sales figures aren't adjusted for inflation, but the cost of goods barely rose last month, so the increased spending isn't a reflection of higher prices. Prices for durable goods, such as those sold by appliance and electronics stores, actually fell last month.The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging. But it does cover spending at restaurants, which had a solid 0.9% increase. Spending online rose 1.1% last month, according to the report. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.4%. Sales at home furnishings and furniture stores were flat, while electronics stores and outlets that sell building materials saw declines reflecting a difficult housing market. The retail sales report, which reflects the sixth consecutive monthly gain, reinforces the fact that American consumers, as a whole, are showing no signs of pulling back on their spending, which powers most of the economy. That spending comes despite attempts by the Federal Reserve to cool spending and hiring. That's good news heading into the critical holiday shopping season. But the robust sales report also means that the Fed officials could leave the door open for additional rate hikes. That means that shoppers could face higher interest rates for awhile.“If the cost-of-living crisis has hit consumer confidence, you wouldn’t know it judging by a second month of strong retail sales with the consumer buying everything that wasn’t nailed down,” said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS LLC, a financial markets research company. “Fed officials have another rate hike this year up on their forecast board, and they will need to use it, if the economic data continues to surprise economists on the upside.” Still, questions remain whether shoppers will finally buckle under more bad news piling up from federal budget wrangling, the resumption of student loan repayments, and new global tensions tied to the Oct. 7 surprise attack by Hamas in Israel. The moratorium on student loan payments lifted Oct. 1. Analysts say that shoppers could also become rattled if the Israel-Hamas war is not contained.Moreover, the relentless spending by shoppers also comes at a cost to their household finances.“We have repeatedly under-estimated the U.S. consumer, “ said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. ”But in pulling off this spending spree, consumers have dented their household finances, a theme that is evident not only in the diminished savings, but also the trend rise in credit card delinquencies.”Healthy consumer spending is expected to lift the economy's growth rate to about 3.5% or possibly even higher in the July-September quarter. September's strong sales also suggests the economy may not slow as much in the final three months of the year as previously expected, analysts said. The retail sales report came as businesses across the U.S. economy ramped up hiring in September, defying surging interest rates, and the ongoing threat of a government shutdown. The strength of hiring has surprised economists inside and outside of the Fed. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from August to September, below the previous month’s 0.6% pace. The report from the Labor Department also showed that year-over-year inflation was flat last month from a 3.7% rise in August.Meanwhile, retailers are pulling out discounts and other incentives to get shoppers to open their wallets for the holiday season as they worry about shoppers' finances. Best Buy, the nation's largest consumer electronics retailer, unveiled a new experience that gives shoppers a chance to access some of the biggest deals and cool gadgets of the holiday season. The items, which kicked off late last month, are only available in limited quantities and exclusively through the Best Buy app. ——————AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report from Washington.——————Follow Anne D’Innocenzio: http://twitter.com/ADInnocenzio。 新加坡元近日升至近十年来的最高水平，反映了市场对新加坡货币政策的信心。随着全球经济的不确定性增加，新元的强势表现引发了广泛关注。1. 新元强势：市场对新加坡货币政策有信心8月23日，新加坡元兑美元汇率触及十年高位，显示出市场对新加坡金融管理局强硬货币政策的信任。2024年，新元上涨约1.5%，成为亚洲表现第二好的货币，紧随马来西亚林吉特之后。新加坡金融管理局通过升值新元来抑制通胀的措施，进一步增强了新元的吸引力。尽管全球经济充满不确定性，新加坡政府将2024年的增长预测上调至2%至3%之间，表明经济扩张将继续支撑新元的升值趋势。这一升值趋势表明，新元在全球经济动荡中的避险地位不断提升。
二 | 然而，市场对未来的走势依然持谨慎态度，尤其是在美联储的政策影响下。来源：Google财经2. 美联储政策对新元的潜在影响8月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话几乎确认了美国将在9月降息。这一消息导致美元走弱，促使新元进一步升值。然而，新元兑美元的进一步上涨空间可能有限，因其已经接近新加坡金融管理局政策区间的强势一侧。华侨银行外汇策略师黄先生指出，尽管市场有信心抛售美元，但新元的涨幅可能落后于其他货币。新加坡金融管理局更关注新元的名义有效汇率，这意味着新元的上涨可能在政策区间内受到限制。未来几个月，新元的表现将受到美联储政策的进一步影响。
三 | 降息预期的加强可能继续推动新元升值，但市场也需警惕潜在的波动性。来源：bankofsingapore3. 展望未来：新元升值的可持续性尽管新元近期表现强劲，但其未来升值的可持续性仍然存在不确定性。新加坡政府上调的经济增长预测为新元提供了支撑，但外部需求的波动仍可能影响新元的长期走势。新加坡金融管理局可能会采取措施，防止新元升值过快，以确保经济稳定。此外，全球市场的不确定性以及美联储政策的变化也可能对新元造成影响。市场参与者应密切关注新加坡金融管理局的政策动向，以及全球经济环境的变化。这将是决定新元未来走势的关键因素。来源：straitstimes新加坡元近期的强势表现反映了市场对新加坡货币政策的信心。然而，未来的升值空间可能受到限制，特别是在美联储政策变化的背景下。投资者需谨慎应对市场波动，并关注新加坡金融管理局的政策指引。参考资料：1. Singapore dollar rises to around 10-year high on policy outlook，海峡时报。
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